domingo, 6 de junio de 2010

¿Tiene España que salir del euro? M. Pettis

As long as the ECB refused to raise interest rates, 

southern Europe had to accept asset bubbles and rapidly rising debt-fueled consumption. This couldn’t go on forever, or even for very long.  Now southern Europe is paying the inevitable price, and of course the moralists are accusing the south of being shiftless and lazy, confusing the automatic balancing mechanisms in the balance of payments with moral weakness.... Spain simply cannot remain within the euro without making radical political changes... monetary conditions cannot be maintained...  The foreign exchange rate value of the currency matters... Like France in the 1920s, the sooner Spain – and by extension the rest of southern Europe – admits that current monetary conditions are untenable, the less damage it is likely to suffer.  The current system, in which fiscal authority is concentrated in Madrid and monetary policy is determined by the needs of the euro, will create insurmountable political opposition as many years of high unemployment turn the population to more radical solutions. Spain will almost certainly have to choose.  Either it gives up fiscal sovereignty – including, most importantly, taxation authority – to Brussels, or it gives up the euro.  The alternative, several years of difficult adjustment borne mostly by workers, is politically unlikely. 

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